Lesson 1 – Overconfidence After Winning

Problem
After multiple wins, you feel unstoppable. You increase risk, ignore rules, and trade recklessly.

Cause

• Illusion of control after success.
• Mistaking luck for skill.
• Overestimating ability during hot streaks.

How the Brain Works

• Winning floods the brain with dopamine, lowering perceived risk.
• Overconfidence bias skews decision-making.

Real-Life Example
Andrius wins 7 trades in a row. Convinced he “can’t lose,” he risks 10% of his account on the next trade. One loss wipes out two weeks of progress.

Practical Solutions

1. Fixed Risk Rule – never exceed your max % risk per trade.
2. Cool-Down Day – after a streak, take one day off.
3. Journal Overconfidence Signs – rushing, skipping rules, risking more.
4. Review Equity Curve – remind yourself streaks are normal.

Key Takeaway: Hot streaks test your discipline more than cold streaks 🔥. Stay grounded 🌍.